Startup & Stabilization Loss Model
Measure ramp losses after starts and grade changes
Reference implementation. Industrial use requires validation on plant-specific data. Metrics are from open evaluation splits, not customer plants.
Intended use
Measuring how long assets take to reach rate after starts, restarts, and grade changes, versus the demonstrated best ramp.
Inputs & outputs
Inputs
Start events, historian ramp curves, grade-change records
Output
Ramp loss versus demonstrated best, per start type
Training data & evaluation
Training-data classification
Synthetic ramp curves across start and grade-change types.
Evaluation approach
Time-to-rate MAE against best ramp on a held-out split.
MAE 6 min· open split
Industrial relevance
Applies across Paper · Glass · Cement, Metals. The value is highest where the affected asset is a constraint and additional output can be monetized.
Limitations
- Requires historian resolution fine enough to resolve the ramp.
- Best-ramp reference should reflect current equipment condition.