Changeover Creep Analyzer
Quantify transition times drifting beyond best repeatable
Reference implementation. Industrial use requires validation on plant-specific data. Metrics are from open evaluation splits, not customer plants.
Intended use
Comparing changeover and transition durations to the best repeatable time for each transition family.
Inputs & outputs
Inputs
Changeover events, product sequence, crew records
Output
Creep minutes by transition family, versus best repeatable
Training data & evaluation
Training-data classification
Synthetic changeover logs across product-sequence families.
Evaluation approach
Duration MAE and best-repeatable estimation error on a held-out split.
MAE 2.8 min· open split
Industrial relevance
Applies across FMCG / CPG, Chemicals. The value is highest where the affected asset is a constraint and additional output can be monetized.
Limitations
- Requires clean changeover start/end boundaries.
- Rare transition families have wide intervals until more data accrues.